Valuation
Foundational
Margin of Safety
Margin of safety is the distance between what a business is worth and
the price paid. The wider the uncertainty around value, the more that
gap matters.
- A good business can still be a bad investment at the wrong price.
- Higher leverage and weaker predictability require a larger discount.
- The point is protection from analytical error, not just bargain hunting.
Cyclicals
Earnings power
Normalized Earnings
Reported earnings can be misleading when a business is at a temporary
peak or trough. Normalized earnings estimate what the company can earn
across a full cycle instead.
- Peak margins exaggerate value, trough margins understate it.
- Use mid-cycle assumptions and ask what is structurally durable.
- A strong balance sheet is what allows earnings to normalize at all.
Capital structure
Valuation
Enterprise Value vs Market Cap
Market cap values the equity. Enterprise value adjusts for debt and
cash so that two businesses with different financing can be compared
on a cleaner operating basis.
- Identical market caps can mask very different total valuations.
- Debt and preferred claims change what a buyer is really paying for.
- Use enterprise value when comparing operating businesses, not just equities.
Management
Quality
Capital Allocation
Capital allocation is management's decision about what to do with the
cash the business generates. It often determines whether a good
business becomes a truly great compounding machine.
- Buybacks only help when shares are actually undervalued.
- Acquisitions should be judged by returns, not by narrative growth.
- Owner-oriented management shows up most clearly when cash piles up.
Cash flow
Operations
Working Capital and Cash Conversion
Profit can look healthy while cash flow deteriorates if inventory or
receivables are absorbing more cash. Working capital is often where
accounting earnings meet operating reality.
- Inventory build can signal either optimism or hidden weakness.
- Receivables tell you whether customers are paying on time.
- Weak cash conversion often deserves more attention than weak margins.
Compounding
Reinvestment
ROIC and Incremental Returns
Return on invested capital measures how efficiently capital becomes
operating profit. Incremental returns reveal whether new capital is
still being deployed productively.
- Historical returns matter less if new projects earn much less.
- The best compounders combine strong returns with a long runway.
- High returns with no reinvestment opportunity is a different animal.